Customer Rating: 
Summary: Develop Tough Oil, believe in the Hydrogen Society, and avoid resource wars
Comment: 1. The International Energy Agency estimates a $5.1 trillion investment by 2030, for problematic fields in the Caspian Sea basin, the middle-east, and Siberia. Increased output will need to come from tough oil reserves.
2. New US oil production by 2030 looks promising. Thunder Horse production started in June 2008, producing 250,000 barrels of oil per day. The US consumes over 25 million bbl/day and exports over 340 million barrels/year. The Bakken oil reserve in Montana, North Dakota, and Southeastern Saskatchewan has an estimate 271 billion to 503 billion barrels of oil. North Dakota oil production will grow significantly. Pemex expects Chicontepec oilfied in Veracrus and Puebla states to reach peak production of 470,000 barrels/day by 2014. Ultra deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, Perdido will operate on the surface of 8,000 ft of water and produce as much as 130,000 barrels/day. It is very doubtful that peak oil has occurred.
3. Suppose consumption reached 100 million barrels per day, the greatest difficulty will be that oil prices drop because of oversupply, as production is destined to increase due to profits and shortages. Oil price controls will be forced to lift and remove and competition use technology and science to increase recoverable oil and bring those supplies too the market. Deep Hot biosphere suggests the earth has abundant resource of petroleum. Oil profits will drop and the oil business will become a marginal low PE business.
4. Cogeneration of nuclear energy electric generation pumping the hot steam into sand tar oil reserves, coal fire electric cool water and steam into oil shale extracting black liquid gold, and coal gasification ICGG will produce hydrogen, electricity, and gasoline; bringing cheap oil and gas back to the market. The financial and environmental costs of using synthetic fuels, tar sands, and shale oil are huge and the current price of oil makes these alternatives now possible. Tough oil will open a vast new supply and return the US into red exporter status.
5. The Saudis will want to produce 10-15 million barrels/day by 2025.
6. 50% of the current world oil production come from 116 giant fields producing more than a 100,000 barrels/day. Those in decline are Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, Cantarell in Mexico, and Burgan in Kuwait. Discover of new fields produces a self-defeating cycle. Why look for new discover of easy oil? Tough oil is the future.
7. By 2030, oil, coal, and natural are projected to provide a 87 percent of the world energy requirements. Oil production will need to rise by 42 percent, natural gas by 65 percent, and coal by 74 percent.
8. Japan has a large energy deficit. Japan has called on national firms to acquire overseas oil and gas reserves. In 2006, Tokyo adopted a New National Energy Strategy mandating that an ever-greater proportion of Japan's oil imports be supplied by Japanese energy firms. The oil volume in exploration and development by Japanese companies will be raised to around 40 percent by 2030. The move was designed to help Japanese firms compete with firms in China and India. This is a wasteful strategy. 2030, should be enough time for Japan to shift completely into a hydrogen society. Instead, of investing in new oil development, Japanese firms should invest into Black Light quantum power generation, hydrogen production, and millions of fuel cell migration devices. Nationalization continues to slow the conversion to a hydrogen society. Gas prices have reached a level where a transfer of technology is now justifiable.
9. National Owed Corporations hold large reserves: Saudi Aramco (264 bbl), National Iranian Oil (137.5 bbl), Iraq National Oil (115 bbl), Kuwait Petroleum Corp ( 101.5 bbl), Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (92.2 bbl), Petroleos de Venezuela (80 bbl), National Oil Corp of Libya (41 bbl), Nigerian National Petroleum (36.2 bbl), Lukoil (16.1 bbl), Qatar Petroleum (15.2 bbl), Gazprom (13.8 bbl), Pemex (12.2 bbl) , China National Petroleum Corp (115. bbl), and Chevron (8 bbl). The large Middle Eastern, National Owned companies control the most large oil reserves. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, and TotalFinaElf are overshadowed by NOCs.
10. In 2007, Abu Dhabi Investment authority invest $7.5 billion in Citigroup. Abu Dhabi has made significant investments in Advance Micro Devices (AMD).
11. Coal fire plants and nuclear plants will provide electricity supply meeting 2030 requirements. Chinese leader show a strong preference for coal fire plants and nuclear. China coal consumption will raise 130 percent by 2030 and account for half of the world consumption.
12. BP believes there exists 909 billion metric tons of coal in the world. US has 246 billion tons, Russia (157 billion), China (114 billion), India (92 billion), and Australia (78 billion) with important reserves in South Africa, Kazahstan, and Ukraine. China is the largest consumer of coal, 38 percent followed by the US at 18.4 percent.
13. The IEA expect China to invest $1.5 trillion in transmission and distribution of power by 2030. China will spend, $2.74 trillion invested in power development , by 2030. Included are new hydro projects, quads of Solar energy generation, and gigawatt wind power generation.
14. 2030, China's projected total power generation of 8472 Trillion watts hours will mean that China will equal the production of the US and European Union combined.
15. China is driving a world commodity boom between 1995-2005: aluminum - 31.9 million tons; iron production - 1.5 billion tons, copper - 16.6 million tons. Deutsche Bank said, "The surge in world demand has contributed to one of the most durable and powerful rallies in industrial metal prices in history." In 2006, China Machine-building international Corp agreed to build three coal fire plants in Zimbabwe in return for Chromium and other minerals. In return for a $5 billion reconstruction and development loan to Congo, China will gain exclusive access to Congo copper, cobalt, and nickel. China will develop infrastructure in Aynak Afghanistan to extract copper.
16. A war over resources control causes economic hyperinflation and impoverishment. Contention over limited resource leads to war. Unlimited energy dissolves the contention for resource and creates a proliferation of productivity. Klares conclusions that resources are limited and war is inevitable are not believable.
Customer Rating: Summary: A MUST READ FOR ALL
Comment: This book should not be read at night when alone. This book if read sober will scare the s*$# out of you. The truth has a tendency to do that to people. Every US citizen should read this book no matter your job, education, or whatever. Michael Klare hit a home run with this book.
As America sits in front of their TV stuck in a deep trance about American Idol or the latest screw up by some movie or pop star the world has been changing. Everyone still thinks things are like the way they were in the 50s, America sits on top of the world. I only wish things were like that. The recent spike in gas prices at the pump shows us all how things are NOT like the 50s.
This book shows the reader just how the world has changed. He chronicles the change in both the world and the world oil market. Rising powers, thus the name of the book like China and India have drastically increased their thirst for oil. This increase demand on oil from those two countries and others have changed the world oil market. At the same time the safe fields in places like Texas have dried up. This has forced the oil providers to go deeper into the world's sewage ponds to get that oil.Those ponds are increasing more and more violent and less and less stable. These two things are creating a unique market paradox. Prices have jumped as we all have seen.
The rising demand various countries are experiencing is pushing countries to work harder to secure that oil. Klare does a great job documenting how China is aggressively doing whatever it takes to secure that oil. Oil is no longer just a good. It is a strategic asset for almost every country. Every country defines not only growth but survival in terms of oil availability.
As a result of this new view of oil nations are posturing like crazy all over the country to ensure that their interests are taken care of. That is where the scary part of the book enters into things. The modern day suburban opinion is that man has evolved out of war. That is behind us. Of course the people that believe that are the ones who don't go to war. People forget two of man's bloodiest wars started by accident, over night. Klare puts it best:
"As the desire for ever scarcer energy supplies builds, the potential to slide across this threshold into armed conflict and possibly great power confrontation poses one of the greatest dangers facing the planet today"
After reading the book you will see what he is talking about. It pans out in the news almost everyday. Those readers who are Christian believers will really be shocked. The story of competition for oil reads a great deal like the prophesy of the end times spoken about in numerous books of the bible. It also reads like the old Hal Lindsey book in the 70s about the "Late Great Planet Earth".
Klare ends with a call for diplomacy to work things out. He is right about calling for that. However I doubt it will work. When you are cold from no oil or hungry or have your national pride wounded because of oil related problems nations might not be in the mood for diplomacy.
